26 Nov. 46
depend largely on whether the Duce
were alive at the time or not.
"The measure and speed of our action would decide Poland's
attitude. Poland will have little inclination to enter the war
against a victorious Germany, with Russia in the rear.
"Military participation by Russia must be countered by the
speed of our operations; it is a question whether this needs to be
taken into consideration at all, in view of Japan's attitude.
"Should case 2 occur--paralyzation of France by a civil
war--then the situation should be utilized at any time for operations
against Czechoslovakia, as Germany's most dangerous enemy would be
eliminated.
"The Führer sees case 3 looming nearer; it could
develop from the existing tensions in the Mediterranean, and should
it occur, he has firmly decided to make use of it any time, perhaps
even as early as 1938.
"Following recent experiences in the course of the events of
the war in Spain, the Führer does not see an early end to
hostilities there.
"Taking into consideration the time required for past
offensives by Franco,"--the English text says
"France"; it means "Franco"--"a further 3
years' duration of war is within the bounds of possibility. On the
other hand, from the German point of view, a 100 per cent victory by
Franco is not desirable; we are more interested in a continuation of
the war and preservation of the tensions in the Mediterranean. Should
Franco be in sole possession of the Spanish peninsula, it would mean
the end of Italian intervention and of the presence of Italy in the
Balearic Isles. As our interests are directed towards continuing the
war in Spain, it must be the task of our future policy to strengthen
Italy in her fight to hold on to the Balearic Isles. However, a
solidification of Italian positions in the Balearic Isles cannot be
tolerated either by France or by England and could lead to a war by
France and England against Italy, in which case Spain, if entirely in
White (that is, Franco's) hands, could participate on the side of
Italy's enemies. A subjugation of Italy in such a war appears very
unlikely. Additional raw materials could be brought to Italy via
Germany. The Führer believes that Italy's military strategy
would be to remain on the defensive against France on the western
frontier and carry out operations against France from Libya, against
the North African French colonial possessions.