NATO's bombing of a Kosovo Albanian refugee convoy has had a varied impact on public opinion toward Kosovo. Support for NATO or its actions has remained stable in Germany and France, but has dropped off in Britain, Italy and front-line countries. Still, many publics appear to be ahead of governments in their anticipation of the need to introduce ground forces.

KEY FINDINGS

• The British public was divided (50%-33%) last week over whether to send ground troops to Kosovo, while the French were in favor (64%) and the Germans (33%-55%), Italians (33%-58%), and Spanish (32%-50%) were opposed. Yet, because publics in all of these countries expressed a preference for troops to take on a peacekeeping rather than a combat role, survey results showed a great sensitivity to question wording.
• Publics in Italy and Spain voiced only limited support for using ground troops in a combat role (42% Spain; 33% Italy).
• The Greek public remained hostile to NATO airstrikes, and a majority advocated that their government adopt a position contrary to that of its NATO allies. At the same time, half believed that Kosovo Albanians' human rights have been violated by the Milosevic regime.
• Since the bombing began, publics in new NATO members Poland and Hungary continued to show strong support for their membership in the alliance, but majorities in both countries opposed the introduction of ground troops.
• Joining NATO has lost some of its appeal in Romania and Slovakia. Croats expressed support for their government's cooperation with NATO.
• Russians tended to view NATO's action in Kosovo as aggression against a sovereign state. However, Russians appeared resistant to entering into any political union with Belgrade.


British Display More Uncertainty Following Refugee Convoy Bombing

Ground Troops. An April 16-17 Guardian /ICM poll, conducted immediately after NATO bombed a refugee convoy, showed a slight decline in British public support for both recent and future NATO action and a rise in the number of those unsure. While Britons still tended to support sending ground troops to fight Serbian forces (50% vs. 33%), this support declined since March 30-31 (Table 1). Earlier polls showed support for ground troops as high as 66 percent (Marplan) and as low as 26 percent (Mori). In the most recent ICM poll, more expressed uncertainty than previously.

Airstrikes. Similarly, ICM /Guardian and Observer surveys showed that while a majority (57%) continued to support the airstrikes, this majority has fallen back to levels registered nearly 3 weeks ago (Table 2), with more now saying they don't know how they feel than previously.

Data from a USIA survey conducted prior to the accidental bombing of the refugee convoy (March 24-April 14) found that two-thirds (68%) of the British public supported "the recent U.S./NATO military action in Kosovo." Comparable Marplan and Mori polls recorded levels of support for airstrikes at 75-76 percent prior to the accident (Table 2).

While Still Opposed To Ground Troops, More In Germany Support Participation

Ground Troops. According to a Forsa survey (conducted April 8-10), Germans opposed (55%) the deployment of NATO ground troops to Kosovo "if the airstrikes are not sufficient to restore peace" (33% in favor). But support had grown slightly since March 25-26 (when 28% were in favor, 61% opposed). If NATO does commit ground troops, more now (46% yes, 45% no) than in late March (36% yes, 61% no) agreed that the Bundeswehr should participate.

Airstrikes. A recent Dimap survey ( Die Welt , April 16) found overall opinion on airstrikes to be divided, with 49 percent in favor of airstrikes and 44 percent opposed. But a majority (68%) overall considered the NATO airstrikes to be justified, according to the Forsa poll, and two in three (64%) supported their country's participation, consistent with previous findings from late March (62%). Support for German participation is stronger in western (70%) than in eastern (41%) Germany.

French Support For NATO Actions Remains High

Ground Troops. An IPSOS survey conducted on April 17 showed relatively steady support for sending ground troops (at 64 percent) (Table 3). A USIA survey (March 30-April 7) found that the French public distinguished between sending "NATO ground troops to maintain the peace until a political settlement is reached" (79% supported, 16% opposed) and sending "NATO ground troops to stop the fighting between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs" (49% vs. 44%).

Airstrikes. In the April 17 IPSOS poll, 70 percent approved of "NATO's military intervention." While there was a slight increase in the percentage who disapproved, overall support remained higher than in polls conducted during the first and second weeks of airstrikes, including findings from the USIA polls conducted March 30-April 7. Another recent survey, conducted by CSA Opinion (April 16-17), found that 55 percent approved and 33 percent disapproved of NATO airstrikes against Serbia -- an increase from early April.

Support for French participation in the NATO action has risen in recent weeks, highlighted in the IPSOS results (73%, up from 59% and 65% in prior two weeks) as well as CSA's findings (59% steady from 58% and up from 46% in prior weeks).

Land War Opposed, But More Italians Back Airstrikes

Ground Troops. Like several other publics, Italians were more supportive of using ground forces for peacekeeping than for combat. According to a recent Pragma survey (April 15-18), the Italian public shifted from a majority in support of sending ground troops into Kosovo "to stop the fighting between Kosovo Albanians and Serbs" in late March (53%) to a majority opposed (58% vs. 33%) (Table 5). A majority still supported sending NATO ground troops "to maintain the peace until a political settlement is reached" (67% support vs. 27% oppose), but the percentage in favor had dropped from the March 26-28 survey (78% support vs. 17% oppose).

Airstrikes. This same survey showed the Italian public to be evenly divided between those who supported (45%) and those who opposed (43%) NATO's airstrikes against Serbia. While support was modest, it represented an increase from a March 26-28 USIA survey (37% support, 49% oppose).

Since NATO began its bombing campaign, the belief that NATO airstrikes are justified has more than doubled (62% vs. 27% on March 25 and 40% on March 31), according to an Ispo/Cra Neilsen survey from April 12. A recent survey by Datamedia ( ANSA , April 20) reported that support for airstrikes was higher than during the first two weeks of the NATO action (42% on April 18 vs. 37% on March 25), but down slightly from a survey at the end of the second week of airstrikes (49% on April 14).

Spanish Polls Conflict On Public Support For NATO Airstrikes And Ground Troops

Ground Troops. In Spain, too, findings suggest that support is slightly higher for a protective role for ground forces than for a combative role. A Demoscopia poll in Spain conducted April 12-14 and published in El Pais (April 18) showed that four in ten (42%) supported sending ground troops to Kosovo "to protect the civilian population" if the airstrikes prove to be insufficient (49% oppose). An earlier El Mundo- Sigma Dos poll (March 30), asked Spaniards "if Milosevic doesn't accept the conditions for peace despite the bombing, would you agree to having NATO ground forces take action in Yugoslavia?" and found that only a third (32%) supported sending ground forces in this case (50% opposed).

Airstrikes. Polls have found varied public reactions to the bombings. Demoscopia found that a slim majority (55%) agreed with Spanish participation in NATO's recent action (38% oppose), but the earlier Sigma Dos and Tele 5 polls found that the public was, at best, closely divided. Six in ten (57%) overall, in the Demoscopia survey, thought that the current situation in Kosovo justified a foreign intervention (30% disagreed), and a majority (64%) held Milosevic responsible for the current military conflict (1% Kosovar Albanians; 3% NATO; 20% "all of them"). Yet, the public was divided on whether the international community had exhausted all attempts to reach an agreement between the Serbs and the Kosovar Albanians "in order to avoid the current situation" (43% yes vs. 41% no). Nearly six in ten (55%) thought the situation could escalate into a general situation of war.

Refugees. Asked about the refugee situation, Spaniards appear willing to help. Three-fourths claimed they personally would be willing to contribute financially. Solid majorities thought Spain should send "all aid that is needed," receive refugees to its capacity, and demand that refugees should return to their homes once their safety could be guaranteed.

Of NATO Countries, Greek Public Most Hostile To NATO Action in FRY

Airstrikes. Two polls conducted recently in the Athens metropolitan area found overwhelming opposition to NATO action against Serbia and the belief that U.S. interests are driving NATO actions. According to an Institute V-PRC poll published in TA NEA (April 17, 19 and 20 editions), nearly all (96%) residents of Athens opposed the airstrikes and half thought that they would "probably not" force Milosevic and Serbia to retreat (26% thought they probably would; 26% don't know). An ALKO survey also among Athens residents (published in Eleftheros Typos , April 18), found that almost everyone (99%) felt that NATO should stop the airstrikes and attempt a political solution through diplomacy. Further, nine in ten (93%) believed that the airstrikes represent "an excessive reaction that the U.S imposed without giving a chance to diplomacy." Five percent believed the airstrikes represent a "necessary evil to stop Milosevic's policy of ethnic cleansing against Kosovo Albanians."

Greek Government Policy. The Institute V poll further showed that half (51%) in Athens approved of the way the Simitis government was handling the crisis in Kosovo, while a third (37%) disapproved. A majority (57%) believed that Greece should not "accommodate NATO forces ... even if that puts it in a conflicting position towards its NATO allies." In fact, the ALKO poll showed that six in ten Athens residents "strongly" disagreed (76% disagreed in total) with the Greek government's signing off on the NATO decision to continue airstrikes. The Institute V poll showed that by a two-to-one margin, Athenians thought that Greece should stay in NATO (53%) rather than leave the alliance (26%; 21% no answer).

Despite their opposition to airstrikes and a favorable view of Milosevic (63%), half (53%) believed that Milosevic and the Serb government do not respect the human rights of Kosovars (22% disagreed; 25% didn't know). Nearly equal percentages felt that the best solution for Kosovo is autonomy (36%) or "to stay under Serbian rule" (36%). Five percent thought that independence would be the best solution, and 4 percent chose division of the province between the Serbs and Albanians.

Refugees. Asked about refugees from Kosovo, slightly more believed that Greece is not "required" to accept and help Albanian refugees from Kosovo than thought it was required to do so (52% vs. 43% required). But many said they would personally volunteer to help the refugees (66%), including helping to collect food and other supplies for the refugees (98%), donating money (86%), and working in a refugee camp (53%). Fewer (36%) said they would welcome refugees in their own home.

Poles Back NATO Airstrikes, Split On Ground Troops

Ground Troops. The CBOS survey (April 8-13) found that Poles were divided over the prospect of NATO ground troops in Kosovo. If NATO airstrikes fail to put an end to the Kosovo conflict, 36 percent of Poles supported sending NATO ground troops, while 40 percent were opposed (Table 6).

Airstrikes. While majorities surveyed by both CBOS and Demoskop thought NATO military action against Yugoslavia was "right" (Table 6), the Demoskop survey, conducted after the NATO bombing of an Albanian refugee convoy, found a slight increase in the percentage opposed to NATO actions "to protect the Kosovo Albanians."

Refugees. Asked about taking in Albanian refugees, seven in ten (68%) thought that Poland should, while 24 percent disagreed (Demoskop, April 9-12).

Conflicting Data on Support for Kosovo Action, But Hungarian Support For NATO Membership Rises

Various surveys conducted in Hungary present contradictory signals. Overall, while Hungarians are supportive of NATO airstrikes and their country's membership in the alliance, there appears to be greater hesitation about committing ground troops to Kosovo.

Ground Troops. The most recent data, from a SzondaPhone survey of residents of Budapest and the Serbian border region (April 20), showed that a majority (70%) of these Hungarians agreed that Hungarian territory should not be used if ground troops are deployed in Kosovo. Gallup's April 15 survey of Budapest residents found that opposition to the use of ground troops had risen from 54 percent to 62 percent over the preceding two weeks. Likewise, a Median survey conducted April 10-11 found that 66 percent opposed sending ground troops (28% approved).

Airstrikes. In the SzondaPhone survey of Budapest and the Serbian border region (April 20), 54 percent supported NATO airstrikes, but 63 percent of these urban residents thought airstrikes should be stopped immediately, and half (51%) supported solving the crisis by negotiations rather than military strikes. Gallup's April 15 survey of Budapest residents found slightly lower levels of support for NATO's intervention in Kosovo (52%) than on March 25 (60%). A Median survey conducted April 10-11 found that 54 percent of all Hungarians approved of NATO airstrikes.

NATO. Support for Hungarian membership in NATO remained strong during the course of NATO actions (81% in the Szondaphone results and 66%, up from 54%, in an earlier survey published in Nepszabadsag on April 16).

Slovaks Oppose NATO Action, But Are Critical Of Milosevic

Airstrikes. A recent survey by IVO (CTK, April 20) reported that 65 percent of Slovaks said that NATO airstrikes against Yugoslavia are "wrong." Just over one-quarter say the airstrikes are "right." But the survey also found that an even greater number (68%) agreed that Milosevic is "responsible for the tragedy of Kosovo Albanians;" (23% not responsible, 9% no opinion).

NATO. While placing the blame on Milosevic, the Kosovo crisis has apparently not improved Slovaks' attitudes towards NATO. The state polling agency of the Slovak Statistical Office conducted a poll on April 14, and found that twice as many (50%) Slovaks opposed their country joining NATO than did in February 1999. Thirty-nine percent supported NATO membership and 11 percent were undecided. The increase in opposition might be explained in part as a reaction against NATO's air campaign in Yugoslavia.

Romanians Continue to Emphasize Neutrality in the Current Kosovo Conflict

According to a poll conducted by CURS (April 15-10), a rising majority (80% from 71% two weeks earlier) of Romanians believed their country should be neutral in the present conflict; one in ten thought Romania should support NATO (9%) or the FRY (7%). The poll also showed that 42 percent considered war in the region the most immediate threat, and 40 percent thought that the proposed Russia-Belarus-FRY union represented a danger for Romania.

Equal percentages held NATO (36%) and the FRY (39%) primarily responsible for the current situation in Yugoslavia, while 11 percent blamed the UCK. Asked to name the best solution to the situation, a large majority (84%) named ceasefire and the resumption of negotiations. Only 9 percent believed that acceptance of the Rambouillet terms would solve the conflict and just 1 percent believed that intervention by NATO ground forces would bring peace.

NATO. The CURS survey results showed that support for Romania's joining NATO fell sharply (52%, down from 67% in December 1998 and 89% in February 1997). Thirty-four percent were "ambivalent" about NATO membership and 14 percent said they "don't know." Half (52%) expected that Romania would not be invited into NATO's future round of enlargement.

Keen To Ally With The West, Croats Appear Favorable Toward Government's Relations With NATO

Ground Troops. Although there are questions about the independence of the Croatian media, survey results published in high circulation newspapers share some of the anti-Serb and pro-West attitudes also found in past USIA surveys. Poll results from March 28 ( Vecernji List , March 29) showed that nine in ten Croats (90%) supported NATO action against the FRY (6% opposed). Even as early as the first week of airstrikes, two-thirds (66%) backed the use of NATO ground troops against the FRY if airstrikes "turned out to be insufficient to stop the violence and ethnic cleansing" (19% were opposed). In a Metron survey conducted April 7, 72 percent agreed that NATO ground forces should intervene in Kosovo (15% disagreed).

NATO. Survey results published in the government-friendly Vecernji List show a generally supportive view of Croatia's relations with NATO during the Kosovo crisis. The April 7 Metron survey showed that Croats were positive about their government's policy on Kosovo (50% good), with another third (32%) saying it is "neither good nor bad;"one in ten (9%) were opposed to their government's policy of cooperation with NATO. An earlier Vecernji List survey (March 28) showed that 70 percent agreed with their government's decision to allow NATO to use Croatian airspace in this action; 18 percent thought the decision was unjustified. If the Serbs were to retaliate for this cooperation by attacking Croatia, one-half (52%) of Croats agreed that their country should respond by bombing the FRY; just over one-third (36%) backed non-military protests. A recent Metron survey (April 19) found that 53 percent of Croats favored allowing NATO forces to use Croatian territory for ground actions against the FRY (29% opposed, 18% didn't know) -- although the survey also reports that a plurality (45%) thought that allowing NATO ground troops through Croatia would not draw Croatia directly into the conflict (31% said it would, 24% did not know).

Refugees. Croats also appear open to allowing Kosovo Albanian refugees to seek refuge in their country. The Metron survey found that half (52%) agreed with letting these refugees enter the country (30% opposed). A recent survey by Centar for Jutarnji List found that 88 percent agreed that Croatia should provide for refugees from Kosovo.

Russians Say Kosovo Is Not NATO's Problem To Solve

The view that the West is interfering in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation informs much of Russian opinion which has shifted significantly over the last two years on this issue. In a VCIOM March 1998 survey, only a quarter of the public (26%) felt that the plight of the Kosovar Albanians was a matter of concern solely for Yugoslavia, and about half (46%) thought that it was a concern of the entire world community. This year (March 27-28, 1999), two-thirds (64%) said it was entirely Yugoslavia's affair, while one-fifth (22%) said it was a matter for the rest of the world to be concerned about.

Slavic Union. Few Russians supported the idea of a new union joining Russia, Belarus and Yugoslavia. A poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion and Market Research Institute ( Kommersant, April 13) found that one-half believed that "if Yugoslavia joins this union," the situation in Russia would deteriorate (one-quarter thought there would be no change, one-eighth thought it would improve). In addition, a third (35%) thought that this union would hurt Russia's standing in the world (35% either didn't know or saw it as improving, and 30% saw no change).

Russia And NATO. There are conflicting views of what the situation in Kosovo means for Russia itself. Two-thirds (63%) in ROMIR's urban phone poll believed that "NATO and U.S. military interference in the internal affairs of other states, e.g., of Russia [italics added], can be expected in the future." A quarter (28%) said not. In contrast to the apocalyptic pronouncements of President Yeltsin, however, ordinary Russians tended to view the entire conflict as just another "typical U.S. military action, like the ones in Iraq or Lebanon" (48%). About equal proportions viewed the hostilities as "the start of World War III" (15%), "the start of a Europe-wide military conflict" (13%), or the beginning of a new cold war (14%). Similarly, the VCIOM poll of April 27-30 showed that more Russians felt that their relations with NATO would gradually "calm down" and return to the status quo ante than believed the Kosovo events would lead to an increase in tensions and a ratchetting up of a new "cold war" (44% to 33%); but a third expressed no opinion.



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Prepared by Janice Bell and Dina Smeltz, R/EU, and Steve Grant, R/RUC (202-619-4490; reu@usia.gov); Issued by the Office of Research and Media Reaction, USIA. This report is based on domestic (non-USIA) media and polling sources. Some of these findings should be interpreted with caution, and as merely indicative of public sentiment due to a lack of detailed information about methodology, timing and question wording.